European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
58%50%
PCIFIC · 22 mapsedge PCIFIC +8%Bebop · 16 maps
NukeBebop pick
40%53%
PCIFIC · 16 mapsedge Bebop +13%Bebop · 11 maps
MirageBebop ban
50%20%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge PCIFIC +30%Bebop · 11 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
29%40%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge Bebop +11%Bebop · 6 maps
InfernoBebop ban
50%33%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Bebop · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%44%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +16%Bebop · 5 maps
DefaultPCIFIC ban
40%56%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge Bebop +16%Bebop · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
2. BanBebop remove Inferno
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickBebop take Nuke
5. BanBebop remove Mirage
6. BanPCIFIC remove Default
DeciderCache (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
PCIFIC 34%Bebop 66%
The model gave 66% on Bebop — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
PCIFIC 61%Bebop 39%
The model gave 61% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 65%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2