CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PRIVATE#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PRIVATE pick
50%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 30 mapsedge PRIVATE +20%PRIVATE · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
65%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 27 mapsedge PRIVATE +5%PRIVATE · 6 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
62%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 25 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%PRIVATE · 3 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
73%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 18 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +23%PRIVATE · 0 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
56%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%PRIVATE · 4 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
33%69%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +36%PRIVATE · 9 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
60%36%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +24%PRIVATE · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickPRIVATE take Dust2
5. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (65% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Nuclear TigeRES 28%PRIVATE 72%
The model gave 72% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 58%PRIVATE 42%
The model gave 58% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoritePRIVATE · 51%
Series resultPRIVATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2