Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
64%50%
PCIFIC · 21 mapedge PCIFIC +14%Phantom Academy · 4 maps
MiragePhantom Academy pick
54%73%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge Phantom Academy +19%Phantom Academy · 11 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
47%56%
PCIFIC · 13 mapsedge Phantom Academy +9%Phantom Academy · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%42%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +18%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom Academy ban
31%43%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge Phantom Academy +12%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
46%50%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%42%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +8%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Anubis
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderCache (60% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
PCIFIC 39%Phantom Academy 61%
The model gave 61% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
PCIFIC 67%Phantom Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 62%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2