ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WBT Academy#120 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
67%60%
PCIFIC · 17 mapsedge PCIFIC +7%WBT Academy · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
50%33%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%WBT Academy · 2 maps
AnubisWBT Academy pick
27%43%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge WBT Academy +16%WBT Academy · 3 maps
MiragePCIFIC ban
45%67%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge WBT Academy +22%WBT Academy · 2 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%50%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%WBT Academy · 0 maps
CacheWBT Academy ban
67%50%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%WBT Academy · 0 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%40%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%WBT Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
5. BanWBT Academy remove Cache
6. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:19
PCIFIC 60%WBT Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
PCIFIC 31%WBT Academy 69%
The model gave 69% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
PCIFIC 67%WBT Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 51%
Series resultWBT Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3