ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
48%60%
Permitta · 19 mapsedge KUUSAMO +12%KUUSAMO · 6 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
39%40%
Permitta · 14 mapsnearly even -1%KUUSAMO · 1 map
MiragePermitta ban
60%50%
Permitta · 11 mapsedge Permitta +10%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
64%57%
Permitta · 7 mapsedge Permitta +7%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
46%50%
Permitta · 9 mapsnearly even -4%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
30%29%
Permitta · 6 mapsnearly even +1%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
DefaultKUUSAMO pick
33%60%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge KUUSAMO +27%KUUSAMO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickKUUSAMO take Default
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
6. BanPermitta remove Mirage
DeciderCache (64% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Permitta 57%KUUSAMO 43%
The model gave 57% on Permitta — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Permitta 52%KUUSAMO 48%
The model gave 52% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Permitta 38%KUUSAMO 62%
The model gave 62% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 65%
Series resultKUUSAMO 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3