ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
57%50%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge Permitta +7%OG · 6 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
50%67%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 8 maps
AncientOG ban
43%50%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge OG +7%OG · 4 maps
NukePermitta ban
33%44%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge OG +11%OG · 5 maps
CacheOG ban
71%29%
Permitta · 3 mapsedge Permitta +42%OG · 3 maps
OverpassPermitta pick
50%60%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge OG +10%OG · 6 maps
InfernoOG pick
50%44%
Permitta · 0 mapsedge Permitta +6%OG · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanOG remove Cache
3. PickPermitta take Overpass
4. PickOG take Inferno
5. BanOG remove Ancient
6. BanPermitta remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Permitta 41%OG 59%
The model gave 59% on OG — the map was taken by Permitta.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Permitta 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Permitta 43%OG 57%
The model gave 57% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3