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Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Revise#160 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
60%50%
Phantom Academy · 6 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Revise · 0 maps
AncientPhantom Academy ban
50%50%
Phantom Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Phantom Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 0 maps
NukeRevise ban
67%50%
Phantom Academy · 2 mapsedge Phantom Academy +17%Revise · 0 maps
AnubisRevise ban
60%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge Phantom Academy +10%Revise · 0 maps
CacheRevise pick
40%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge Revise +10%Revise · 0 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
40%50%
Phantom Academy · 1 mapedge Revise +10%Revise · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Cache
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. BanPhantom Academy remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Phantom Academy 50%Revise 50%
The model gave 50% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Revise.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Phantom Academy 37%Revise 63%
The model gave 63% on Revise — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Phantom Academy 50%Revise 50%
The model gave 50% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 61%
Series resultRevise 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3