NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
50%80%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Atreides +30%Atreides · 6 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
67%33%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +34%Atreides · 2 maps
AncientPhantom ban
44%63%
Phantom · 5 mapsedge Atreides +19%Atreides · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%50%
Phantom · 3 mapsedge Atreides +7%Atreides · 6 maps
NukeAtreides ban
60%50%
Phantom · 6 mapsedge Phantom +10%Atreides · 0 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
50%63%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Atreides +13%Atreides · 4 maps
DefaultPhantom pick
50%60%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Atreides +10%Atreides · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickPhantom take Default
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Nuke
6. BanPhantom remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Phantom 18%Atreides 82%
The model gave 82% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Phantom 63%Atreides 37%
The model gave 63% on Phantom — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 57%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2