Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BRUTE#106 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBRUTE ban
61%33%
Phantom · 19 mapsedge Phantom +28%BRUTE · 2 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
64%61%
Phantom · 7 mapsnearly even +3%BRUTE · 14 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
42%44%
Phantom · 8 mapsnearly even -2%BRUTE · 12 maps
MirageBRUTE pick
50%63%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +13%BRUTE · 12 maps
InfernoBRUTE ban
56%57%
Phantom · 12 mapsnearly even -1%BRUTE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%50%
Phantom · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 6 maps
CachePhantom ban
33%70%
Phantom · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +37%BRUTE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Cache
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickBRUTE take Mirage
5. BanBRUTE remove Inferno
6. BanPhantom remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
Phantom 35%BRUTE 65%
The model gave 65% on BRUTE — the map was taken by Phantom.
Infernoprediction missed16:19
Phantom 52%BRUTE 48%
The model gave 52% on Phantom — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Phantom 53%BRUTE 47%
The model gave 53% on Phantom — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 63%
Series resultBRUTE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3