NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#87 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 Ares pick
41%63%
Phantom · 13 mapsedge G2 Ares +22%G2 Ares · 15 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
58%56%
Phantom · 15 mapsnearly even +2%G2 Ares · 12 maps
AncientPhantom ban
47%54%
Phantom · 11 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%G2 Ares · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%43%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +24%G2 Ares · 10 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
50%56%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +6%G2 Ares · 14 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
59%50%
Phantom · 13 mapsedge Phantom +9%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
67%57%
Phantom · 2 mapsedge Phantom +10%G2 Ares · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Inferno
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanPhantom remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Phantom 27%G2 Ares 73%
The model gave 73% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Phantom 46%G2 Ares 54%
The model gave 54% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 58%
Series resultPhantom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2