Stake Ranked Episode 5 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#87 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
57%56%
Phantom · 17 mapsnearly even +1%G2 Ares · 12 maps
Dust2Phantom ban
50%39%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +11%G2 Ares · 19 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
70%52%
Phantom · 6 mapsedge Phantom +18%G2 Ares · 21 map
MiragePhantom ban
44%44%
Phantom · 5 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 21 map
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Phantom · 6 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 6 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%50%
Phantom · 10 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 0 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
33%36%
Phantom · 2 mapsnearly even -3%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Mirage
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickPhantom take Ancient
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
6. BanPhantom remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Phantom 66%G2 Ares 34%
The model gave 66% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Phantom 54%G2 Ares 46%
The model gave 54% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 67%
Series resultPhantom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2