CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
55%60%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge TNC +5%TNC · 11 maps
NukeTNC pick
67%59%
Phantom · 5 mapsedge Phantom +8%TNC · 13 maps
AncientPhantom ban
44%50%
Phantom · 5 mapsedge TNC +6%TNC · 10 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
64%36%
Phantom · 7 mapsedge Phantom +28%TNC · 7 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
50%67%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge TNC +17%TNC · 8 maps
OverpassTNC ban
43%38%
Phantom · 3 mapsedge Phantom +5%TNC · 4 maps
DefaultTNC ban
50%33%
Phantom · 0 mapsedge Phantom +17%TNC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Anubis
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickTNC take Nuke
5. BanTNC remove Default
6. BanPhantom remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Phantom 78%TNC 22%
The model gave 78% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Phantom 42%TNC 58%
The model gave 58% on TNC — the map was taken by TNC.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Phantom 58%TNC 42%
The model gave 58% on Phantom — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 62%
Series resultTNC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3