Esports Nations Cup 2026 East Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Polandwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kosovoloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPoland ban
50%40%
Poland · 0 mapsedge Poland +10%Kosovo · 1 map
MirageKosovo ban
50%40%
Poland · 0 mapsedge Poland +10%Kosovo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPoland remove Inferno
2. BanKosovo remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Poland 53%Kosovo 47%
The model gave 53% on Poland — the map was taken by Poland.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Poland 47%Kosovo 53%
The model gave 53% on Kosovo — the map was taken by Poland.
Model check result
Model favoritePoland · 50%
Series resultPoland 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2