ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Prestige#100 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 11:13
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
38%45%
Prestige · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 18 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS ban
67%62%
Prestige · 2 mapsedge Prestige +5%BASEMENT BOYS · 17 maps
MiragePrestige ban
60%60%
Prestige · 1 mapnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 16 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
60%53%
Prestige · 1 mapedge Prestige +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
CachePrestige ban
50%50%
Prestige · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
AnubisPrestige ban
40%56%
Prestige · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%40%
Prestige · 2 mapsedge Prestige +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrestige remove Cache
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. BanPrestige remove Anubis
4. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Nuke
5. BanPrestige remove Mirage
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (38% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Prestige 42%BASEMENT BOYS 58%
The model gave 58% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoritePrestige · 53%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 11:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1