United21 League Season 49 · BO3
result vs prediction
Prestige#100 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MANA#86 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%40%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%MANA · 6 maps
MirageMANA pick
50%40%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%MANA · 6 maps
AncientPrestige pick
50%29%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Prestige +21%MANA · 3 maps
AnubisPrestige ban
50%57%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge MANA +7%MANA · 3 maps
InfernoPrestige ban
50%50%
Prestige · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MANA · 2 maps
NukeMANA ban
50%50%
Prestige · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MANA · 2 maps
OverpassMANA ban
50%40%
Prestige · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%MANA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrestige remove Anubis
2. BanMANA remove Overpass
3. PickPrestige take Ancient
4. PickMANA take Mirage
5. BanMANA remove Nuke
6. BanPrestige remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Prestige 74%MANA 26%
The model gave 74% on Prestige — the map was taken by Prestige.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Prestige 57%MANA 43%
The model gave 57% on Prestige — the map was taken by MANA.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Prestige 43%MANA 57%
The model gave 57% on MANA — the map was taken by Prestige.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANA · 62%
Series resultPrestige 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3