ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePRISONBREAK pick
60%67%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +7%LFO 9 · 2 maps
AnubisLFO 9 pick
60%60%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapnearly even +0%LFO 9 · 1 map
Dust2LFO 9 ban
60%40%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge PRISONBREAK +20%LFO 9 · 1 map
AncientLFO 9 ban
40%50%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 0 maps
CachePRISONBREAK ban
40%50%
PRISONBREAK · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 0 maps
InfernoPRISONBREAK ban
50%60%
PRISONBREAK · 0 mapsedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRISONBREAK remove Inferno
2. BanLFO 9 remove Ancient
3. PickPRISONBREAK take Mirage
4. PickLFO 9 take Anubis
5. BanLFO 9 remove Dust2
6. BanPRISONBREAK remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
PRISONBREAK 47%LFO 9 53%
The model gave 53% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
PRISONBREAK 46%LFO 9 54%
The model gave 54% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 9 · 50%
Series resultLFO 9 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2