1win Private Club Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
78%61%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +17%fnatic · 19 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
22%78%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge fnatic +56%fnatic · 19 maps
MiragePRIVATE pick
73%40%
PRIVATE · 7 mapsedge PRIVATE +33%fnatic · 11 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
67%36%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +31%fnatic · 10 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%61%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge fnatic +11%fnatic · 14 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
57%71%
PRIVATE · 3 mapsedge fnatic +14%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickPRIVATE take Mirage
4. Pickfnatic take Anubis
5. Banfnatic remove Dust2
6. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (78% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
PRIVATE 7%fnatic 93%
The model gave 93% on fnatic — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
PRIVATE 80%fnatic 20%
The model gave 80% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 64%
Series resultPRIVATE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2