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PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#66 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePRIVATE pick
75%36%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsedge PRIVATE +39%Johnny Speeds · 7 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
33%40%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
57%56%
PRIVATE · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds ban
75%60%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsedge PRIVATE +15%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
50%43%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge PRIVATE +7%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
50%40%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge PRIVATE +10%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%67%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
3. PickPRIVATE take Mirage
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Ancient
6. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
DeciderNuke (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
PRIVATE 40%Johnny Speeds 60%
The model gave 60% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
PRIVATE 86%Johnny Speeds 14%
The model gave 86% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
PRIVATE 57%Johnny Speeds 43%
The model gave 57% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 53%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3