WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMagnumloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PRIVATE pick
40%50%
PRIVATE · 1 mapedge Magnum +10%Magnum · 2 maps
MirageMagnum pick
60%60%
PRIVATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Magnum · 1 map
AncientMagnum ban
60%50%
PRIVATE · 1 mapedge PRIVATE +10%Magnum · 0 maps
AnubisMagnum ban
40%50%
PRIVATE · 1 mapedge Magnum +10%Magnum · 0 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%40%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge PRIVATE +10%Magnum · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
2. BanMagnum remove Ancient
3. PickPRIVATE take Dust2
4. PickMagnum take Mirage
5. BanMagnum remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
PRIVATE 53%Magnum 47%
The model gave 53% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
PRIVATE 57%Magnum 43%
The model gave 57% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoritePRIVATE · 69%
Series resultPRIVATE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2