CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PRIVATE#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UPGRADE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
50%59%
PRIVATE · 2 mapsedge UPGRADE +9%UPGRADE · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%56%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsedge PRIVATE +7%UPGRADE · 14 maps
AncientPRIVATE pick
78%64%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +14%UPGRADE · 7 maps
NukePRIVATE ban
43%42%
PRIVATE · 3 mapsnearly even +1%UPGRADE · 8 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
25%33%
PRIVATE · 4 mapsedge UPGRADE +8%UPGRADE · 5 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
78%38%
PRIVATE · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +40%UPGRADE · 4 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
50%57%
PRIVATE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%UPGRADE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
2. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
3. PickPRIVATE take Ancient
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
6. BanPRIVATE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (63% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
PRIVATE 60%UPGRADE 40%
The model gave 60% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
PRIVATE 38%UPGRADE 62%
The model gave 62% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 51%
Series resultPRIVATE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2