EPIC49 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#207 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CTRL#206 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
33%50%
Privateer · 17 mapsedge CTRL +17%CTRL · 0 maps
AncientCTRL pick
24%50%
Privateer · 13 mapsedge CTRL +26%CTRL · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
27%50%
Privateer · 7 mapsedge CTRL +23%CTRL · 0 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
30%50%
Privateer · 6 mapsedge CTRL +20%CTRL · 0 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
30%50%
Privateer · 6 mapsedge CTRL +20%CTRL · 0 maps
InfernoCTRL ban
43%50%
Privateer · 3 mapsedge CTRL +7%CTRL · 0 maps
AnubisCTRL ban
67%50%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +17%CTRL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
2. BanCTRL remove Anubis
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickCTRL take Ancient
5. BanCTRL remove Inferno
6. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (27% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Privateer 47%CTRL 53%
The model gave 53% on CTRL — the map was taken by CTRL.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Privateer 36%CTRL 64%
The model gave 64% on CTRL — the map was taken by Privateer.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Privateer 67%CTRL 33%
The model gave 67% on Privateer — the map was taken by CTRL.
Model check result
Model favoriteCTRL · 50%
Series resultCTRL 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3