CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
33%67%
Privateer · 5 mapsedge mellren +34%mellren · 17 maps
Nukemellren ban
35%18%
Privateer · 13 mapsedge Privateer +17%mellren · 7 maps
AncientPrivateer ban
33%67%
Privateer · 8 mapsedge mellren +34%mellren · 11 maps
Dust2mellren ban
29%55%
Privateer · 10 mapsedge mellren +26%mellren · 7 maps
InfernoPrivateer pick
67%56%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +11%mellren · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
25%50%
Privateer · 4 mapsedge mellren +25%mellren · 4 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
50%71%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge mellren +21%mellren · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickPrivateer take Inferno
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Dust2
6. BanPrivateer remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (25% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Privateer 18%mellren 82%
The model gave 82% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Privateer 73%mellren 27%
The model gave 73% on Privateer — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 65%
Series resultmellren 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2