Intel EPIC48 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
60%42%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Privateer +18%The Last Resort · 15 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
40%60%
Privateer · 1 mapedge The Last Resort +20%The Last Resort · 11 maps
OverpassPrivateer ban
50%64%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%The Last Resort · 10 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
50%27%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge Privateer +23%The Last Resort · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%60%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%The Last Resort · 6 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
60%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Privateer +10%The Last Resort · 4 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
50%63%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +13%The Last Resort · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
6. BanPrivateer remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Privateer 70%The Last Resort 30%
The model gave 70% on Privateer — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Privateer 28%The Last Resort 72%
The model gave 72% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Privateer.
Cacheprediction missed6:13
Privateer 50%The Last Resort 50%
The model gave 50% on Privateer — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 58%
Series resultThe Last Resort 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3