ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#175 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon pick
60%40%
Procyon · 1 mapedge Procyon +20%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
AncientProcyon ban
50%60%
Procyon · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
40%50%
Procyon · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
MirageBounty Hunters ban
50%40%
Procyon · 0 mapsedge Procyon +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
NukeBounty Hunters pick
40%50%
Procyon · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickProcyon take Dust2
4. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Procyon 72%Bounty Hunters 28%
The model gave 72% on Procyon — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Procyon 57%Bounty Hunters 43%
The model gave 57% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Procyon 40%Bounty Hunters 60%
The model gave 60% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 72%
Series resultBounty Hunters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3