European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Project 91#160 in the world · win 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WAZABI#251 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientProject 91 pick
44%40%
Project 91 · 5 mapsnearly even +4%WAZABI · 1 map
MirageWAZABI ban
50%50%
Project 91 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%WAZABI · 0 maps
AnubisWAZABI ban
50%40%
Project 91 · 2 mapsedge Project 91 +10%WAZABI · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
43%50%
Project 91 · 3 mapsedge WAZABI +7%WAZABI · 0 maps
DefaultProject 91 ban
33%50%
Project 91 · 2 mapsedge WAZABI +17%WAZABI · 0 maps
InfernoWAZABI pick
33%50%
Project 91 · 2 mapsedge WAZABI +17%WAZABI · 0 maps
Dust2Project 91 ban
40%50%
Project 91 · 1 mapedge WAZABI +10%WAZABI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProject 91 remove Dust2
2. BanWAZABI remove Mirage
3. PickProject 91 take Ancient
4. PickWAZABI take Inferno
5. BanWAZABI remove Anubis
6. BanProject 91 remove Default
DeciderNuke (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Project 91 40%WAZABI 60%
The model gave 60% on WAZABI — the map was taken by WAZABI.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Project 91 58%WAZABI 42%
The model gave 58% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Project 91.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Project 91 60%WAZABI 40%
The model gave 60% on Project 91 — the map was taken by Project 91.
Model check result
Model favoriteWAZABI · 68%
Series resultProject 91 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3