European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Enjoy#199 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
52%57%
PsychoFace · 17 mapsedge Enjoy +5%Enjoy · 3 maps
MirageEnjoy pick
38%67%
PsychoFace · 9 mapsedge Enjoy +29%Enjoy · 2 maps
AncientPsychoFace ban
25%60%
PsychoFace · 4 mapsedge Enjoy +35%Enjoy · 6 maps
AnubisEnjoy ban
50%63%
PsychoFace · 6 mapsedge Enjoy +13%Enjoy · 4 maps
NukeEnjoy ban
38%60%
PsychoFace · 9 mapsedge Enjoy +22%Enjoy · 1 map
OverpassPsychoFace pick
67%50%
PsychoFace · 8 mapsedge PsychoFace +17%Enjoy · 2 maps
DefaultPsychoFace ban
50%60%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsedge Enjoy +10%Enjoy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Ancient
2. BanEnjoy remove Nuke
3. PickPsychoFace take Overpass
4. PickEnjoy take Mirage
5. BanEnjoy remove Anubis
6. BanPsychoFace remove Default
DeciderDust2 (52% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed22:19
PsychoFace 47%Enjoy 53%
The model gave 53% on Enjoy — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
PsychoFace 48%Enjoy 52%
The model gave 52% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
PsychoFace 24%Enjoy 76%
The model gave 76% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnjoy · 56%
Series resultEnjoy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3