Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
50%27%
PURE · 8 mapsedge PURE +23%MOUZ NXT · 11 maps
Dust2PURE ban
43%46%
PURE · 3 mapsnearly even -3%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
NukePURE pick
56%55%
PURE · 5 mapsnearly even +1%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%57%
PURE · 3 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisPURE ban
29%50%
PURE · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
40%67%
PURE · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +27%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
29%50%
PURE · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickPURE take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanPURE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
PURE 23%MOUZ NXT 77%
The model gave 77% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by PURE.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
PURE 76%MOUZ NXT 24%
The model gave 76% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoritePURE · 54%
Series resultPURE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2