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NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
47%56%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +9%Black Phoenix · 39 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
67%44%
QUAZAR · 14 mapsedge QUAZAR +23%Black Phoenix · 23 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%55%
QUAZAR · 10 mapsnearly even +2%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
57%25%
QUAZAR · 10 mapsedge QUAZAR +32%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
63%56%
QUAZAR · 12 mapsedge QUAZAR +7%Black Phoenix · 14 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
55%61%
QUAZAR · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Black Phoenix · 14 maps
DefaultQUAZAR ban
50%56%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Black Phoenix · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
6. BanQUAZAR remove Default
DeciderNuke (57% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
QUAZAR 38%Black Phoenix 62%
The model gave 62% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
QUAZAR 60%Black Phoenix 40%
The model gave 60% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
QUAZAR 53%Black Phoenix 47%
The model gave 53% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 53%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3