NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
47%59%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +12%ex-RUSTEC · 30 maps
Anubisex-RUSTEC pick
62%64%
QUAZAR · 9 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUSTEC · 21 map
NukeQUAZAR ban
50%46%
QUAZAR · 8 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 20 maps
CacheQUAZAR pick
60%47%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsedge QUAZAR +13%ex-RUSTEC · 11 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
67%60%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsedge QUAZAR +7%ex-RUSTEC · 11 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
56%44%
QUAZAR · 5 mapsedge QUAZAR +12%ex-RUSTEC · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
QUAZAR · 1 mapnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. PickQUAZAR take Cache
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Anubis
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
6. BanQUAZAR remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
QUAZAR 51%ex-RUSTEC 49%
The model gave 51% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
QUAZAR 60%ex-RUSTEC 40%
The model gave 60% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 60%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2