ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
57%63%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge HOTU +6%HOTU · 12 maps
NukeQUAZAR ban
60%73%
QUAZAR · 6 mapsedge HOTU +13%HOTU · 7 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%64%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge HOTU +14%HOTU · 7 maps
AnubisHOTU ban
67%60%
QUAZAR · 5 mapsedge QUAZAR +7%HOTU · 1 map
MirageQUAZAR pick
71%67%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsnearly even +4%HOTU · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HOTU · 2 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
50%29%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +21%HOTU · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanHOTU remove Overpass
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickHOTU take Dust2
5. BanHOTU remove Anubis
6. BanQUAZAR remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
QUAZAR 60%HOTU 40%
The model gave 60% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
QUAZAR 47%HOTU 53%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 67%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2