IEM Beijing 2026 Open Qualifier · BO1
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 11:13
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
50%33%
QUAZAR · 8 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%Nemiga · 8 maps
MirageNemiga ban
75%56%
QUAZAR · 8 mapsedge QUAZAR +19%Nemiga · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
58%75%
QUAZAR · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 4 maps
NukeQUAZAR ban
55%67%
QUAZAR · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +12%Nemiga · 2 maps
CacheNemiga ban
55%50%
QUAZAR · 7 mapsedge QUAZAR +5%Nemiga · 0 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%50%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 6 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 6 mapsedge QUAZAR +10%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
4. BanNemiga remove Mirage
5. BanQUAZAR remove Nuke
6. BanNemiga remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (58% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
QUAZAR 38%Nemiga 62%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 59%
Series resultNemiga 11:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1