ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ReThink#237 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%ReThink · 4 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%50%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ReThink · 4 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
60%57%
QUAZAR · 1 mapnearly even +3%ReThink · 3 maps
AnubisQUAZAR ban
60%60%
QUAZAR · 1 mapnearly even +0%ReThink · 1 map
NukeReThink ban
67%50%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%ReThink · 0 maps
DefaultReThink pick
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%ReThink · 0 maps
InfernoReThink ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%ReThink · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanReThink remove Nuke
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickReThink take Default
5. BanReThink remove Inferno
6. BanQUAZAR remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
QUAZAR 57%ReThink 43%
The model gave 57% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
QUAZAR 53%ReThink 47%
The model gave 53% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 65%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2