ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Keyd Stars ban
77%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 9 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +27%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Dust2QUINTESSÊNCIA pick
60%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 6 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%ex-Keyd Stars · 2 maps
Ancientex-Keyd Stars pick
44%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 5 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +6%ex-Keyd Stars · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%60%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 6 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Keyd Stars · 1 map
InfernoQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
43%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 3 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +7%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
AnubisQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
40%40%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 mapnearly even +0%ex-Keyd Stars · 1 map
Defaultex-Keyd Stars ban
60%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 mapedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Anubis
2. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Dust2
4. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Ancient
5. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Default
6. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
QUINTESSÊNCIA 53%ex-Keyd Stars 47%
The model gave 53% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
QUINTESSÊNCIA 42%ex-Keyd Stars 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Keyd Stars · 52%
Series resultex-Keyd Stars 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2