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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%44%
Rare Atom · 6 mapsedge Rare Atom +16%Just Swing · 5 maps
AncientJust Swing pick
56%50%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Just Swing · 4 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
67%63%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Just Swing · 4 maps
InfernoRare Atom ban
50%57%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +7%Just Swing · 3 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
57%50%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Just Swing · 0 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%67%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Just Swing · 2 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
60%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +10%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
3. PickRare Atom take Cache
4. PickJust Swing take Ancient
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Rare Atom 50%Just Swing 50%
The model gave 50% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Dust2prediction correct13:0
Rare Atom 68%Just Swing 32%
The model gave 68% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
Rare Atom 56%Just Swing 44%
The model gave 56% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 63%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3