FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaleido#167 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
50%55%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge Kaleido +5%Kaleido · 7 maps
Dust2Rare Atom pick
56%50%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Kaleido · 4 maps
CacheKaleido ban
67%29%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +38%Kaleido · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%38%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +12%Kaleido · 4 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
67%60%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Kaleido · 1 map
NukeRare Atom ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 2 maps
AnubisKaleido ban
60%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Rare Atom 42%Kaleido 58%
The model gave 58% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Rare Atom 60%Kaleido 40%
The model gave 60% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Rare Atom 56%Kaleido 44%
The model gave 56% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 67%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3