ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Legion#206 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
65%38%
Rare Atom · 13 mapsedge Rare Atom +27%Legion · 4 maps
InfernoLegion ban
50%40%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Legion · 1 map
AncientRare Atom ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Legion · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
64%40%
Rare Atom · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +24%Legion · 1 map
MirageLegion pick
56%60%
Rare Atom · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Legion · 1 map
AnubisLegion ban
57%40%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Legion · 1 map
DefaultRare Atom ban
33%40%
Rare Atom · 2 mapsedge Legion +7%Legion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
2. BanLegion remove Inferno
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickLegion take Mirage
5. BanLegion remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Default
DeciderCache (64% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
Rare Atom 73%Legion 27%
The model gave 73% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Legion.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
Rare Atom 75%Legion 25%
The model gave 75% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Rare Atom 45%Legion 55%
The model gave 55% on Legion — the map was taken by Legion.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 74%
Series resultLegion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3