ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XDM#222 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
63%43%
Rare Atom · 15 mapsedge Rare Atom +20%XDM · 3 maps
InfernoXDM pick
50%67%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsedge XDM +17%XDM · 5 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
50%50%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsnearly even +0%XDM · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%33%
Rare Atom · 6 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%XDM · 5 maps
CacheXDM ban
69%40%
Rare Atom · 9 mapsedge Rare Atom +29%XDM · 1 map
AnubisXDM ban
57%50%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%XDM · 0 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%57%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge XDM +7%XDM · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanXDM remove Cache
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickXDM take Inferno
5. BanXDM remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:0
Rare Atom 31%XDM 69%
The model gave 69% on XDM — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Rare Atom 72%XDM 28%
The model gave 72% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 67%
Series resultRare Atom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2