Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · win 19:16series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 19:16
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 16:19The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
56%36%
RBLS · 5 mapsedge RBLS +20%Famalicão · 7 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
44%50%
RBLS · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +6%Famalicão · 6 maps
CacheRBLS ban
57%33%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge RBLS +24%Famalicão · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
RBLS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Famalicão · 6 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
50%33%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge RBLS +17%Famalicão · 2 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%50%
RBLS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageRBLS ban
50%60%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Mirage
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. BanRBLS remove Cache
4. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
5. BanRBLS remove Dust2
6. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct19:16
RBLS 50%Famalicão 50%
The model gave 50% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 61%
Series resultRBLS 19:16
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1