HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RBLS pick
50%25%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +25%MAYBE · 4 maps
AncientMAYBE ban
60%38%
RBLS · 1 mapedge RBLS +22%MAYBE · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%43%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +7%MAYBE · 3 maps
MirageMAYBE pick
50%56%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +6%MAYBE · 5 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
50%50%
RBLS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 2 maps
CacheRBLS ban
50%60%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 1 map
DefaultRBLS ban
50%60%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Cache
2. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
3. PickRBLS take Dust2
4. PickMAYBE take Mirage
5. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
6. BanRBLS remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
RBLS 37%MAYBE 63%
The model gave 63% on MAYBE — the map was taken by RBLS.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
RBLS 77%MAYBE 23%
The model gave 77% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 61%
Series resultRBLS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2