CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
63%55%
regain · 4 mapsedge regain +8%Club 333 · 7 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
62%50%
regain · 9 mapsedge regain +12%Club 333 · 0 maps
Dust2Club 333 pick
67%55%
regain · 2 mapsedge regain +12%Club 333 · 7 maps
Mirageregain ban
50%50%
regain · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Club 333 · 4 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%44%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +6%Club 333 · 5 maps
AnubisClub 333 ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickClub 333 take Dust2
5. BanClub 333 remove Anubis
6. Banregain remove Mirage
DeciderCache (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
regain 61%Club 333 39%
The model gave 61% on regain — the map was taken by Club 333.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
regain 60%Club 333 40%
The model gave 60% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
regain 50%Club 333 50%
The model gave 50% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 61%
Series resultregain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3