ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
53%53%
regain · 11 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 13 maps
MirageLAG ban
44%44%
regain · 12 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 12 maps
Dust2LAG pick
50%63%
regain · 8 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 12 maps
AncientLAG ban
62%64%
regain · 9 mapsnearly even -2%LAG · 7 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%67%
regain · 0 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 11 maps
Anubisregain ban
60%73%
regain · 1 mapedge LAG +13%LAG · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%67%
regain · 5 mapsedge LAG +11%LAG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Mirage
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Ancient
6. Banregain remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
regain 53%LAG 47%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by LAG.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
regain 35%LAG 65%
The model gave 65% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 70%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2