ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 1:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
62%63%
regain · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Marsborne · 15 maps
Infernoregain pick
53%60%
regain · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Marsborne · 11 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
44%67%
regain · 12 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Marsborne · 8 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%58%
regain · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Marsborne · 8 maps
Anubisregain ban
60%70%
regain · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%71%
regain · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +21%Marsborne · 3 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. Banregain remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
regain 29%Marsborne 71%
The model gave 71% on Marsborne — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 73%
Series resultregain 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1