ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoregain pick
50%41%
regain · 12 mapsedge regain +9%Villainous · 13 maps
Mirageregain ban
31%44%
regain · 12 mapsedge Villainous +13%Villainous · 12 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
40%67%
regain · 1 mapedge Villainous +27%Villainous · 14 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
36%44%
regain · 10 mapsedge Villainous +8%Villainous · 5 maps
AncientVillainous ban
67%25%
regain · 8 mapsedge regain +42%Villainous · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%60%
regain · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Villainous · 1 map
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Villainous · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanVillainous remove Ancient
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickVillainous take Anubis
5. BanVillainous remove Dust2
6. Banregain remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
regain 23%Villainous 77%
The model gave 77% on Villainous — the map was taken by regain.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
regain 62%Villainous 38%
The model gave 62% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 59%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2