FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Reign Above#324 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
F5#208 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientF5 pick
43%56%
Reign Above · 3 mapsedge F5 +13%F5 · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Reign Above · 2 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 4 maps
AnubisReign Above pick
57%50%
Reign Above · 3 mapsedge Reign Above +7%F5 · 2 maps
MirageReign Above ban
50%67%
Reign Above · 2 mapsedge F5 +17%F5 · 2 maps
NukeF5 ban
60%43%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge Reign Above +17%F5 · 3 maps
OverpassReign Above ban
50%50%
Reign Above · 0 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 2 maps
DefaultF5 ban
60%50%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge Reign Above +10%F5 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReign Above remove Overpass
2. BanF5 remove Nuke
3. PickReign Above take Anubis
4. PickF5 take Ancient
5. BanF5 remove Default
6. BanReign Above remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Reign Above 35%F5 65%
The model gave 65% on F5 — the map was taken by Reign Above.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Reign Above 60%F5 40%
The model gave 60% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Reign Above.
Model check result
Model favoriteReign Above · 53%
Series resultReign Above 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2