ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
ReThink#237 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BAKS ban
50%43%
ReThink · 4 mapsedge ReThink +7%BAKS · 3 maps
AncientReThink pick
57%50%
ReThink · 3 mapsedge ReThink +7%BAKS · 0 maps
InfernoReThink ban
50%57%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 3 maps
MirageBAKS pick
50%60%
ReThink · 2 mapsedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 1 map
NukeReThink ban
50%57%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge BAKS +7%BAKS · 3 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
60%50%
ReThink · 1 mapedge ReThink +10%BAKS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReThink remove Nuke
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickReThink take Ancient
4. PickBAKS take Mirage
5. BanBAKS remove Dust2
6. BanReThink remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:7
ReThink 47%BAKS 53%
The model gave 53% on BAKS — the map was taken by ReThink.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
ReThink 60%BAKS 40%
The model gave 60% on ReThink — the map was taken by BAKS.
Mirageprediction missed28:26
ReThink 40%BAKS 60%
The model gave 60% on BAKS — the map was taken by ReThink.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 53%
Series resultReThink 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3