ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
ReThink#237 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wingman pick
57%57%
ReThink · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Wingman · 3 maps
AncientReThink pick
50%50%
ReThink · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wingman · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%60%
ReThink · 1 mapedge Wingman +20%Wingman · 1 map
OverpassWingman ban
50%50%
ReThink · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Wingman · 2 maps
AnubisWingman ban
60%50%
ReThink · 1 mapedge ReThink +10%Wingman · 0 maps
InfernoReThink ban
50%60%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge Wingman +10%Wingman · 1 map
NukeReThink ban
50%60%
ReThink · 0 mapsedge Wingman +10%Wingman · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReThink remove Nuke
2. BanWingman remove Anubis
3. PickReThink take Ancient
4. PickWingman take Dust2
5. BanWingman remove Overpass
6. BanReThink remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
ReThink 47%Wingman 53%
The model gave 53% on Wingman — the map was taken by Wingman.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
ReThink 53%Wingman 47%
The model gave 53% on ReThink — the map was taken by ReThink.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
ReThink 31%Wingman 69%
The model gave 69% on Wingman — the map was taken by ReThink.
Model check result
Model favoriteWingman · 52%
Series resultReThink 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3