ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Abyssal pick
44%67%
Ground Zero · 14 mapsedge Abyssal +23%Abyssal · 5 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
71%38%
Ground Zero · 10 mapsedge Ground Zero +33%Abyssal · 4 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
60%40%
Ground Zero · 6 mapsedge Ground Zero +20%Abyssal · 6 maps
MirageGround Zero ban
50%77%
Ground Zero · 2 mapsedge Abyssal +27%Abyssal · 9 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
54%40%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsedge Ground Zero +14%Abyssal · 1 map
AncientGround Zero ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +20%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
2. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickAbyssal take Dust2
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Ground Zero 67%Abyssal 33%
The model gave 67% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction correct12:16
Ground Zero 31%Abyssal 69%
The model gave 69% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Ground Zero 81%Abyssal 19%
The model gave 81% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 69%
Series resultGround Zero 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3