DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DXA#220 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassRooster ban
29%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge DXA +21%DXA · 2 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%57%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 3 maps
Dust2DXA ban
50%60%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge DXA +10%DXA · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
43%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 0 maps
AnubisRooster pick
60%40%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +20%DXA · 1 map
DefaultDXA pick
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge DXA +17%DXA · 0 maps
InfernoDXA ban
67%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +17%DXA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanDXA remove Inferno
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickDXA take Default
5. BanDXA remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Rooster 64%DXA 36%
The model gave 64% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Rooster 43%DXA 57%
The model gave 57% on DXA — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 61%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2