ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRooster ban
55%50%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Rooster +5%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
AnubisRooster pick
70%50%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Rooster +20%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
44%43%
Rooster · 5 mapsnearly even +1%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
56%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +6%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
NukeRooster ban
38%40%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even -2%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
OverpassMARKandLARRY ban
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
CacheMARKandLARRY ban
60%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +10%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Nuke
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Cache
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Overpass
6. BanRooster remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Rooster 49%MARKandLARRY 51%
The model gave 51% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Rooster 72%MARKandLARRY 28%
The model gave 72% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 60%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2