Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeROUNDS ban
27%50%
ROUNDS · 7 mapsedge Raccoons +23%Raccoons · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%60%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Raccoons · 1 map
InfernoRaccoons ban
56%50%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge ROUNDS +6%Raccoons · 0 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
75%50%
ROUNDS · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +25%Raccoons · 0 maps
MirageRaccoons pick
29%60%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge Raccoons +31%Raccoons · 1 map
CacheRaccoons ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Raccoons +17%Raccoons · 0 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsedge Raccoons +17%Raccoons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanRaccoons remove Inferno
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. PickRaccoons take Mirage
5. BanRaccoons remove Cache
6. BanROUNDS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
ROUNDS 19%Raccoons 81%
The model gave 81% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Nukeprediction correct16:19
ROUNDS 30%Raccoons 70%
The model gave 70% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 55%
Series resultRaccoons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2